The halving is expected to happen today at approximately 9 p.m. ET, reducing the miners’ block subsidy incentive from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Here, a few companies in the sector say about what effect the most recent halving of Bitcoin would have on its price movement.
The price of bitcoin has been known to fluctuate significantly in response to halvings, or “halvenings” as some have called them. These occurrences have frequently come before significant bull runs in the Bitcoin market, even though there isn’t a clear cause-and-effect relationship.
In the past, there have been noticeable price spikes for bitcoin in the six months that follow each halving event. According to Binance CEO Richard Teng, “In fact, bitcoin reached new all-time highs in each four-year period between the previous halving events,” as per report.
“The main question everyone has is how will the bitcoin price react to the halvening this time around?” According to Thomas Perfumo, Head of Strategy at Kraken. “Perhaps the market cycle is kicking off earlier, but history suggests we haven’t reached the end of the cycle either.”
Nansen research analyst Aurélie Barthere noted that post-halving price returns for Bitcoin were typically five to six times higher in the 250 days following halvings compared to other years. Despite current market corrections due to macroeconomic factors, Barthere remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend.
“While others look at the Bitcoin price on a technical basis and predict it will increase, I, on the other hand, am looking at the basic fundamentals of supply and demand and drawing the same bullish conclusions,” Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, said.
Apart from the fluctuations in value, heightened involvement in the bitcoin market due to the introduction of exchange-traded funds specifically for spot bitcoin in the United States is undoubtedly a distinguishing feature this time around.
Since the last halving took place in 2020, “the fourth halving has also fallen at a time when there’s a substantial increase in institutional engagement,” stated Alex Cable, vice president of Chainalysis WEMEA Area.
“Institutions have not just entered the market, they are now shaping its trajectory, bringing with them a new level of credibility, stability, and interest from mainstream finance. Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the global economy is paving brand new paths for its demand and utility,” according to Cable.
According to Scott Shapiro, Senior Product Director at Coinbase, “Spot bitcoin ETFs have reshaped bitcoin’s market structure going into the halving by establishing a new anchor for BTC demand.”
Shapiro suggested that steady daily net inflows into these products could significantly benefit the asset class, especially as the rate of newly mined bitcoin declines. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate supply shortage, the combination of expanded capital access and evolving supply dynamics could lead to a unique post-halving period.
Some argue that this halving is more about narrative than actual impact. Gemini’s Claire Ching noted that while the daily supply will halve, it’s a small fraction of the daily volume. Bitcoin’s price will likely continue to be influenced by demand factors, particularly ETFs and institutional adoption.
Also Read: Bitcoin Nears Halving Event, Less Than 100 Blocks Remaining
