The amount of people betting on Bitcoin’s price going up is twice as much as those betting it will go down. There are about 18,000 Bitcoin contracts that are about to expire soon, with more people holding contracts to buy Bitcoin at a certain price (calls) than contracts to sell it (puts). The ‘Maxpain’ point, where almost all contracts will lose value, is expected to be at $62,000.
This week’s contracts about to expire are worth about $1.15 billion, slightly less than last week’s. There’s a lot of interest in buying Bitcoin at prices of $70,000 and $100,000, which means many investors expect its price to go up. But there’s also a significant amount of interest in selling Bitcoin at those prices.
Trading firms have noticed more people buying contracts that bet on Bitcoin’s price going up. They’re even closing current contracts to buy new ones that bet on even higher prices in July and September.
Looking at the Bitcoin market, there’s been a drop in trading and a price drop. This has made investors less confident, shown by the decreasing implied volatility (IV) – basically, how much people think the price will change. Even though IV is a bit lower than usual, it probably won’t drop much more.
Greeks.live stated, “Empirically May has not been a good month for the market, and it is good value for money to buy some monthly puts now.”
Overall, May historically hasn’t been great for Bitcoin, so some experts suggest buying contracts that bet on its price going down as a safety measure.
