Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are now tied at 49% odds on Polymarket, the leading crypto prediction platform. This development comes amid a high-stakes race with over $541 million wagered on the platform.
The change occurred after Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential nominee, which is quite unexpected given that many expected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
However, the chances for Harris have increased from 30% to match Trump and his running mate J. D. Vance, who campaigned in Michigan alongside Harris and Walz.
Biden’s probability has significantly reduced to 7% due to his COVID-19 infection and concerns about his potential to withdraw from the race. Prediction markets such as Polymarket, which operates on Polygon, a layer two scaling solution for Ethereum, offer real-time political sentiment data as opposed to polls.
The odds of Polymarket are sensitive to the breaking news; for instance, after the attempt on Trump’s life. But, Harris’s decision to pick Walz over Shapiro shows that prediction markets may fail to capture certain events.
This is because the interest in the 2024 election has pushed traders to Polymarket to record trading volumes of $1 billion monthly for the first time with July alone hitting $343 million. This is even higher than in June and increased by 440% compared to $63 million in May 2024.
Despite rising popularity, Polymarket struggles with revenue generation. U.S. senators and representatives have called for a ban on election betting, citing concerns that large wagers could undermine democratic principles.
