Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $200,000 this year because of weak buying activity, according to James Check, Lead Analyst at blockchain data firm Glassnode. He said trading volume is too low to support such a strong price rise.
Check’s comments follow growing claims by some analysts that Bitcoin will soon hit new highs. “How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” Check asked in an interview on Tuesday. He said $200,000 in six months would be a “big move” and is “very improbable” without stronger support. He also warned that fast price surges without a solid base can lead to sharp drops.
Check explained that the first step to $200,000 was crossing $120,000, which happened on July 14, 2025. But he said there are more steps ahead. “Then we’ve got to get to $130, and $140, and $150. It’s one thing to get there, it’s another thing to stay there,” he said.
He added that he is not willing to take big risks unless he sees more buying volume and signs that the market is stronger. “Until I see that volume kick in, I’m not going to go out on the risk curve.”
Still, Check remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term future. He said most of his money is in Bitcoin, and he believes that in five years it will be “well and truly” above $200,000.
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