Key Highlights
- Bitcoin slides to $90K, hitting the bottom of a major falling-wedge pattern where bulls are attempting to defend the cycle’s most important support zone.
- Panic selling intensifies, with short-term holder realized losses surging to $427M/day, the highest since 2022, while ETF inflows remain weak.
- A decisive move is imminent: holding $90K could trigger a rebound toward $96K–$105K, but a breakdown risks a deeper drop to $88K–$84K.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its November decline by falling to $90,000 and hitting the lower boundary of a large falling-wedge formation that has contained the entire downtrend from the $126K all-time high. The move represents a 1.7% intraday drop and puts BTC at its most important technical level since mid-year.
Despite strong institutional inflows earlier this quarter, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion as price, momentum, and volume converge in a high-risk zone around the $90,000–$91,000 level. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $90,931.48 according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC is sitting on the edge of a Falling Wedge
Bitcoin has been trending within a descending wedge since topping near $126K. BTC has bounced from the lower support line several times, each bounce driven by bullish defense at the wedge base, but now touches it again at $91K.
A falling wedge is a technical pattern where price moves between two downward-sloping trendlines that gradually converge. It often indicates bearish exhaustion and sets the foundation for a future breakout if the lower trendline holds firm as a support.
Bitcoin continues to trade below its key Simple Moving Averages: the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs. These averages indicate the direction of price trends over different timeframes, and trading below all of them signals a broad bearish structure.
All SMAs currently slope downward, reinforcing persistent sell pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring whether the market is overbought or oversold, has dropped to 29, its lowest level in months. RSI readings below 30 typically suggest oversold conditions where short-term bounces often occur.
On today’s daily chart:
- BTC is touching the lower wedge trendline for the third time.
- The structure remains intact, but any decisive close below $90K would invalidate the pattern.
- If invalidated, the next liquidity cluster sits at $88K, followed by $84K: two zones with strong historical bid activity.
This compression suggests that a large directional move is imminent.
Panic selling is elevated
Glassnode data shows short-term holder (STH) realized losses have surged to $427M/day, based on the 7-day EMA, the highest level since November 2022. Short-term holders are investors who recently bought coins, and as they are now selling them at a loss, it’s a sign of panic and stress in the market.
These losses now exceed levels seen at the previous two cycle bottoms, indicating that panic selling is elevated and clearly rising. The bulls must defend the wedge base to avoid deeper downside.
Further, Swissblock earlier reported that short-term holder supply in loss has climbed to levels consistent with prior capitulation phases, which typically occur when weaker hands exit the market under pressure.
Short-term scenarios
Looking at the current chart pattern and market sentiment, here are two of the most likely scenarios.
Scenario 1: Bounce From Wedge Support
If BTC holds the $90K–$91K zone, the price may rebound toward $96K–$98K, with resistance at the wedge’s upper trendline near $105K. Clearing that level could extend the rally toward $112K.
Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $90K
A decisive daily close under $90K for BTC could open the path to $88K, where liquidity clusters sit, and possibly $84K, a broader demand zone. Rising realized losses and weak ETF flows increase the risk of this outcome.
The Crypto Times’ take
Bitcoin is now testing the most critical support of the entire pullback. Oversold momentum, rising short-term holder losses, and falling wedge compression suggest the market is close to a decision point.
A bounce is possible if bulls maintain the $90K floor, but failure to defend this zone could trigger a deeper sweep toward $88K → $84K before stability returns. The next 24–48 hours remain crucial for determining whether BTC stabilizes or continues its correction.
Also Read: Dave Portnoy Buys $2M Worth BTC, ETH, and XRP Amid Market Crash
