Crypto traders on Polymarket are betting that U.S President Donald Trump will not announce the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas. According to Data from Polymarket, there’s a 45% chance that Trump won’t name a Fed Chair before year-end. If he does, traders predict a 28% chance that Hassett will be chosen, 9% for Waller, and 8% for Rieder.
The betting surge follows news that Trump is looking to replace Jerome Powell and may announce his choice for the next chair before Christmas.
Trump’s five candidate choices
In an interview with Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the process is taking place in Washington, and Trump is meeting candidates to finalize his decision
“We’re doing another round of interviews. Then some people in the White House will be doing interviews, probably right after Thanksgiving,” Bessent said. He added that Trump hopes to have an answer before Christmas.
The five final contenders are current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder.
Trump praised the candidates but did not name a clear favorite. Speaking from the Oval Office, he said, “I think I already know my choice. I’d love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back,” referring to Powell. He added, “We have some surprising names and some standard names that everybody’s talking about.”
Bessent also confirmed he will not be considered for the role. Trump had hoped Bessent might accept the job, but the Treasury Secretary prefers to stay in his current post. Bessent said he could “safely say” he will not be the pick.
Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate among the five. He has said he would take the role if offered and favors larger interest rate cuts, while expecting the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting.
Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May next year, though his governor term continues until 2028. The new chair will take a 14-year Fed governor term beginning February 1, a slot currently held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave from the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
The next Fed Chair will need to carefully balance Trump’s desire for lower interest rates with maintaining market confidence.
Donald Trump’s tussle with Jemore Powell
Trump has been threatening to fire Powell even before he took office. Over time, this has become one of the loudest political tensions in U.S. economic leadership. Trump had previously claimed he would fire the Fed chair multiple times, but said “people are holding me back,” as he makes it clear how deeply frustrated he is with the Fed chair’s refusal to cut interest rates.
At one time, Trump even called Powell “a fool” and “a stupid man,” despite being the one who appointed him in 2017. Federal law protects Powell from being fired without serious cause, which has stopped Trump from acting on his threats, but it hasn’t stopped him from repeating them.
The clash recently spilled into public view when Trump incorrectly claimed the Fed’s renovation cost had jumped to $3.1 billion, and Powell corrected him on the spot, exposing their strained relationship. Even with moments of calm, Trump says he still plans to replace Powell when his term ends.
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