Key Highlights
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hold above $80,000 despite short-term dips.
- Liquidity is improving as the Fed ends quantitative tightening and U.S. banks increase lending.
- Hayes plans small “nibbling” buys now but will save larger purchases for the new year.
The outlook on Bitcoin’s next move is becoming a debate in the crypto space with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predicting that the cryptocurrency will stay above $80,000 as the Federal Reserve prepares to end its quantitative tightening program on December 1.
This change could help bring more liquidity into the market, and Hayes thinks this shift will make the $80,000 support level stronger even if Bitcoin moves up and down in the short term. He said Bitcoin may still fall once more into the low $80,000 range, but he does not expect the price to break below that zone.
Hayes expects one more drop before stability
Hayes explained his view in an X post, “we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k’s but I think $80k holds,” He said, as he expects rough movement but not a deep crash.
He also said he is thinking of “nibbling” at current prices, which means buying small amounts, but he will “leave the bazooka until the new year,” meaning he plans to save bigger purchases for later.
Hayes explained that he sees “minor improvements in $ liquidity,” and he pointed to two reasons for this change: first, the Fed is expected to stop its balance sheet roll-off on December 1, and second, U.S. banks increased lending in November. He said these two things are helping the market breathe a little better after weeks of tight conditions.
Liquidity signals shape Bitcoin’s path
The co-founder had previously said Bitcoin fell to $81,000 because dollar liquidity dropped sharply, but he thinks this pressure will ease before the year ends. He also repeated his belief that Bitcoin could still reach between $200,000 and $250,000 if liquidity grows quickly enough to support strong buying activity across different investor groups.
Hayes added that Bitcoin’s recovery does not depend on another Fed rate cut because, in his words, the “quantity of credit” is more important than the “price of credit.” He noted that Bitcoin rose from $16,000 to $100,000 even when interest rates were high, which shows that strong liquidity can support big moves.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading for $86,507. This is a 0.20% drop in 24 hours, and 8.35% loss of value in the last seven days, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
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