Key Highlights
- Bitcoin jumped from $80K to above $90K post Thanksgiving, thanks to rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- Crypto and traditional markets also gained, with mining stocks, silver, and gold moving higher.
- Despite the rally, analysts warn that Bitcoin is still fragile after losing its 50-week moving average and key support levels.
Bitcoin has kept a modest rally after Thanksgiving as the token maintains its price at $90,000. This is after surging up to $93K during early U.S. trading hours today before dropping slightly. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $90,773, a 1.11% drop over the last 24 hours, and is now roughly 15% higher than last week’s low of $80,000.
This short rally was a result of a bounce back from the recent crash and confidence regained by investors due to expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in early December, with the odds jumping from 30% earlier this month to 98% as of now, according to data from Polymarket Prediction Market.
Holiday bounce that breaks Bitcoin’s usual pattern
Bitcoin had already started its rally before Thanksgiving after bouncing from multimonth lows at $80,000 to reclaim $90,000 on Wednesday. Bitcoin was trading at $91,400 on Thursday, climbing more than 5% from Wednesday’s levels.
Historically, Bitcoin has been known to experience losses on Thanksgiving, with only two positive years in the last 10 years and an average loss of -0.8%. This year’s rise is unusual.
In 2024, Bitcoin had a very mixed Thanksgiving performance, gaining only +1.3% during the weekend. This followed other small moves in recent years, such as +0.1% in 2023 and -1.1% in 2022. The strongest Thanksgiving weekend in the last decade was in 2017, when Bitcoin jumped 13%, while one of the biggest drops happened in 2018 with a steep -13.3% fall.
Below are the returns of BTC from its 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends:
| Year | Weekly Return |
|---|---|
| 2024 | +1.3% |
| 2023 | +0.1% |
| 2022 | -1.1% |
| 2021 | +0.2% |
| 2020 | -2.8% |
| 2019 | -1.5% |
| 2018 | -13.3% |
| 2017 | +13% |
| 2016 | -1.7% |
| 2015 | +16% |
| 2014 | +2% |
| 2013 | -5% |
| 2012 | +1.3% |
| 2011 | 15.6% |
| 2010 | -26.5% |
| 2009 | -10% |
Market confidence spreads beyond Bitcoin
Crypto mining stocks also benefited from the rally. CleanSpark (CLSK) rose 12.5%, Bitfarms (BITF) went up 6.50%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) climbed 7.82%. Bitcoin-related companies also saw gains. Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) increased 1.88%, and the struggling KindlyMD (NAKA) bounced 2.43% today.
Despite the rally, Bitcoin’s structure remains fragile. According to data from Glassnode, the cryptocurrency has lost its 50-week moving average and key cost-basis support.
“This current range echoes the same dynamic with the market drifting lower, constrained by limited inflows and fragile liquidity,” the platform warned.
Realized losses are elevated, with STH loss ratios collapsing to 0.07x, which means that liquidity and demand are fading. Based on current price action, reclaiming the $100,000–$105,000 range is crucial to prevent a potential breakdown below $80,000.
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