Key Highlights
- Glassnode says long-term holder distribution is slowing, hinting the market is absorbing older supply.
- CryptoQuant data shows short-term BTC deposits to Binance have cooled sharply compared to November peaks.
- Spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw over $1B in early-2026 outflows, adding friction despite calmer on-chain flows.
Bitcoin (BTC) is starting 2026 with fewer sellers lining up. On-chain data this week shows long-term holders pulling back from distribution, while short-term traders are sending noticeably less BTC to exchanges, easing near-term selling pressure.
Figures shared by Glassnode indicate that net outflows from veteran holders have pulled back from prior extremes, a sign that much of the excess supply may have already been cleared. Historically, this kind of shift tends to show up as corrections run their course, not when a fresh downturn is just getting started.
Short-term sellers step back on Binance
That view is reinforced by exchange flow data from CryptoQuant, which shows a drop in short-term Bitcoin deposits to Binance. In November, short-term holder inflows briefly surged above 12,000 BTC on a seven-day average as Bitcoin traded near $84,000, a period marked by panic selling and aggressive profit-taking.
By December, those inflows moderated and became more volatile, staying below 7,000 BTC as prices moved into a sideways correction. January data shows deposits now hovering under 6,000 BTC, with the short-term holder ratio remaining relatively stable. Analysts say this points to the absence of a new wave of forced selling and suggests that much of the readily sellable supply from the prior drawdown has already changed hands.
Retail fear contrasts with structural uptrend
While exchange flows ease, sentiment among retail traders remains cautious. CryptoQuant data shows retail traders have been locking in losses for weeks, even as Bitcoin’s broader trend remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows stretching through 2024 and 2025.
Historically, this divergence, rising prices alongside capitulating short-term holders, has tended to appear near consolidation zones rather than major tops. Analysts caution, however, that sustained fear can still translate into choppy price action if macro or liquidity conditions deteriorate.
ETF outflows add near-term friction
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $1.1 billion between January 6 and 8, wiping out the early-January bounce. BlackRock- and Fidelity-linked funds led the outflows, indicating institutions are tapping the brakes again.
The selling was largely confined to Bitcoin and Ether products, while ETFs tracking XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin kept pulling in fresh money, suggesting investors are rotating exposure rather than heading for the door.
Market snapshot
Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,577, down roughly 0.2% on the day, with a market capitalization near $1.8 trillion. Trading volume rose to roughly $31.46 billion (+149%), a spike that often shows repositioning, not calm.
For now, the data paints a market in transition: long-term sellers are stepping back, short-term traders are less aggressive, and price action is searching for balance. Whether that stabilization holds will likely depend on whether exchange inflows remain muted or suddenly spike again.
Also read: South Korea Targets Bitcoin Spot ETFs Amid 2026 Regulatory Shift
