Key Highlights
- Crypto’s old four-year cycle is gone; now price moves depend on where money flows and what investors notice.
- ETFs and big funds favor major coins, altcoin rallies have shortened to 20 days, and institutions embrace smarter trading.
- Advanced tools like OTC derivatives and options are rising as traders seek control, and fresh retail inflows could reshape 2026.
Winermute, the leading crypto market maker, believes that the old four-year crypto cycle is over, and 2026 could look very different. According to their latest report, crypto prices are no longer following predictable seasonal patterns. Which coins move up now completely depends on where capital is flowing and what investors are paying attention to.
This change has shook old beliefs about how capital moves in the crypto market and makes it unclear which altcoins or big cryptocurrencies will do well next. “The traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete. Market performance is no longer dictated by self-fulfilling timing narratives, but by where liquidity flows and investor mindshare concentrates,” the firm stated.
As per the report, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasuries/trusts (DATs) are ‘walled gardens’ where funds were continuously channeled towards major cryptocurrencies in 2025, making it more difficult for smaller ones to be in the spotlight. Consequently, the period when altcoins rallied averaged only 20 days, compared to an average of 60 days in 2024, with the majority of new investments flowing into major digital currencies.
What changed in 2025
In the past, when Bitcoin (BTC) rose, the gains usually trickled down to Ethereum (ETH), then other big tokens, and finally smaller altcoins. But last year, Wintermute’s data shows this pattern weakened.
Traders moved away from just chasing volume and started using smarter, more controlled strategies. Over-the-counter (OTC) trading is becoming more popular because it lets investors handle bigger trades quietly and with more control, especially as the market liquidity thinned
The big institutional traders started getting more participation during the last year as well. According to Wintermute, they are now more accustomed to dealing with structured products, derivatives, and complex trading strategies rather than simple buy-and-hold trades.
Even though there have been weak price movements during 2025, they are still around, and that reveals that the market is turning out to be more professional and methodical regarding trading.
Moreover, macroeconomic factors diverted retail attention. Investors favored equities in AI, robotics, and quantum technologies. Crypto lost its position as the go-to risk asset for retail.
Consequently, capital inflows became episodic, reacting to headlines rather than following seasonal swings. ETFs and DATs funneled liquidity into majors, while stablecoins acted as an additional inflow channel. These structural changes, Wintermute argues, make the traditional four-year cycle obsolete.
Looking ahead: Three paths for 2026
Wintermute sees three ways crypto could grow in 2026. More tokens like SOL and XRP could be added to ETFs and other funds, giving investors additional choices. Besides, leaders like Bitcoin and Ethereum might surge and eventually help smaller coins rise too.
Further, if investors shift from stocks to back to crypto, it could bring in fresh money and increase stablecoin activity. While this is the least likely scenario, it would make crypto more popular with traders.
At the same time, many traders are using advanced tools like OTC derivatives and options to manage risk and stay in control. Token use in Contracts for Differences (CFDs) has tripled, and options trading has more than doubled, showing that investors are relying more on these strategies to handle trades smartly.
Also Read: Magic Eden CEO Unveils Token Buyback Program, Predicts Supercycle
