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Bitcoin More Likely to Crash at $45k than Reclaiming $100K: Polymarket Odds

Traders on Polymarket are heavily betting on Bitcoin’s downside momentum, with a 72% chance that BTC price will crash to $55,000 in 2027.

Written By Gopal Solanky
Fact Checked by Divya Mistry
Published February 23, 2026 11:37 AM·Updated 6 months ago
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Bitcoin More Likely to Crash at $45k than Reclaiming $100K

Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $65,000, briefly dipping to around $64,400–$64,500 on major exchanges during early Asian trading hours on February 23, 2026.
  • Predictions on Polymarket show heavy bearish positioning, with 72% odds that Bitcoin crashes to $55,000 at some point in 2027. The probability of BTC dropping to $45,000 this year now exceeds the chance of reclaiming $100,000 in 2026. 
  • Analysts described it as a classic “leverage flush” exposing the extended nature of the prior rally, amid factors like tariff-related uncertainty and rotation away from risk assets.

During early Asian-trading hours, Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $65,000 on February 23, 2026, triggering a cascade of liquidations that wiped out $230 million in leveraged long positions within an hour. The sell-off, which saw Bitcoin briefly dip as low as around $64,400 on major exchanges, erased recent gains and intensified bearish sentiment across the crypto space. 

Traders pointed to heavy over-leveraged bets on the upside unraveling rapidly, with forced sales amplifying the downward pressure. The move came amid broader uncertainty, including lingering effects from earlier tariff announcements and rotation out of risk assets. 

Given the current market conditions, traders on Polymarket are heavily betting on Bitcoin’s downside momentum, with 72% chances that BTC price will crash to $55,000 in 2027. 

Bitcoin price prediction probabilities in a betting market, Source: Polymarket
Source: Polymarket

The odds of Bitcoin crashing to $45,000 are now higher than that of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 this year. However, the highest odds of 75% still gauges on the fact that BTC will surge back above $75,000 before the year ends. 

At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,950, down 4.3% in the past 24 hours. It fell swiftly from its daily high of $67,400 to as low as $64,452, as per CoinMarketCap data. This drop also dragged down the total crypt market cap 3.9% to $2.23 trillion, with large-cap altcoins like ETH, SOL, XRP, and others falling over 5% during the latest slump. 

Analysts described the liquidation event as a classic leverage flush, not necessarily marking a final bottom but exposing how extended the prior rally had become. Now all eyes are on the Monday market opening in the U.S., which tends to bought weighty volatility in the market.  

Also read: Democrats Vs. Trump: Stablecoin Regulation or Backend Deal for WLFI?

Disclaimer: The information researched and reported by The Crypto Times is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Investing in crypto assets involves significant risk due to market volatility. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified Financial Advisor before making any investment decisions.

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