Key Highlights
- BitMEX’s Hayes sees Bitcoin’s $80K low as a market bottom and expects a potential $250K surge, driven by liquidity shifts and macro conditions.
- ETF flows misled retail investors; institutional trades and dollar liquidity, not sentiment, largely shaped Bitcoin’s price moves this year.
- Post-crash, Hayes favors altcoins with real users and revenue like Pendle, Athena, and EtherFi, while advising caution on leverage and early-stage tokens.
Bitcoin bulls may have reason to cheer as Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Co-Founder and former CEO, remains confident in a bold $250,000 Bitcoin target before year-end. Speaking on the Milk Road Show, Hayes insisted that Bitcoin’s recent dip to $80,000 marked a market bottom.
He noted that fluctuations in U.S. dollar liquidity are behind Bitcoin’s recent bounce. With just over a month left in the year, Hayes still thinks Bitcoin could surge 170% to a new record high.
According to him, recent decreases in prices had more to do with overall economic conditions rather than investors’ feelings about Bitcoin. Investment figures between April and October 2025 in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and Digital Asset Treasury firms gave the illusion that large institutions were heavy buyers of Bitcoin.
However, ETF inflows often turned into outflows, and DATs traded at discounts, causing Bitcoin to adjust sharply. “Much of the rise was misinterpreted as institutional demand, but it was mainly liquidity-driven,” Hayes said.
Liquidity and macro drivers
Hayes compared 2025 with 2023, focusing on the actions of the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Political delays in raising the U.S. debt ceiling temporarily pushed liquidity higher. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen reduced that pressure in 2023 with reverse repos. However, in 2025, the Treasury’s Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t have similar buffers against liquidity drains. Quantitative tightening has siphoned about $1 trillion out of markets beginning in July, a negative for Bitcoin.
However, Hayes notes a turning point: the Treasury General Account now holds roughly $900 billion, and the Fed has ended QT. Analysts expect potential quantitative easing soon. “These shifts mark a bottom in liquidity contraction,” Hayes explained, signaling that Bitcoin’s $80,000 low could hold.
ETF moves and altcoin insights
Hayes highlighted the sophisticated nature of large ETF holders, including Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Avenue, and Jane Street. These companies generate leveraged spreads through basis trades, ETF purchases, collateral pledges, and futures shorting.
ETF outflows occur when funding rates decline and positions unwind. Consequently, retail investors often misread these technical moves as sentiment shifts. “Understanding this mechanism is crucial for interpreting market behavior,” Hayes emphasized.
After the October crash, Hayes changed how he looks at altcoins. He now prefers projects that have real users and generate revenue, like Pendle, Athena, and EtherFi, because they seem like safer, smarter bets.
Interestingly, he believes some of these altcoins could do better than Ethereum in the short term, even though he still keeps a solid amount of ETH in his portfolio. He cautions retail traders against high leverage and early-stage tokens. Hayes explained, “Professional trading is a full-time job. Treating it casually risks losses.”
Recent moves and market outlook
Hayes recently sold close to $5 million in crypto amid market dips. He reduced Ethereum, Ethena, Lido DAO, Aave, Uniswap, and EtherFi positions. Despite short-term volatility, at the time, he was also firm in expecting Bitcoin to remain above $80,000.
He plans small purchases now, while saving large buys for the new year. Improvements in liquidity, partly as a function of increased bank lending and halted QT, are supportive of this outlook.
Arthur Hayes believes that liquidity and market conditions are far more vital in determining the price of Bitcoin than mere sentiment. This projection of $250,000 reflects the impact of macro factors and institutional trading. Regular investors are better off focusing on liquid assets and avoiding high-risk leverage.
At the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $90,932.51 with a 24-hour volume of $57.2 billion, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of year-end macro shifts.
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