Key Highlights
- Bitcoin prices reflect deep caution, but much of the negative macro sentiment appears already priced in, hinting at a potential market turning point.
- Technical trends show a full cycle of mid-year gains, October peaks, and November declines, with moving averages signaling both short- and long-term momentum shifts.
- Elevated Binance inflows suggest large players are positioning coins, increasing sell-side liquidity and signaling possible market rotation, not pure accumulation.
Bitcoin is moving with caution as the flagship cryptocurrency currently projects one of the most bearish growth expectations since the Covid crash of 2020 and the FTX crisis of 2022. Accordingly, analysts say most of the negative macro sentiment is already reflected in Bitcoin’s prices, a possible turning point for investors.
André Dragosch, PhD and Head of Research at Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin is “essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment.” He explained, “This is probably the most important work I’ve done on Bitcoin & Macro so far… Bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022 and 2020.”
Dragosch emphasized that global growth expectations may accelerate from here due to prior monetary stimulus, creating conditions for a potential rebound similar to the Covid-19 market recovery.
At the time of writing, as per CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading at $90,625.29, down 1.04% in the last 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of $53.97 billion. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies fell 1.27% to $3.08 trillion as the total market volume climbed 5.67% to $115.32 billion, reflecting intense selling activity in light of the price drop.
Technical indicators show mixed momentum
Santiment’s 4-hour timeframe chart depicts Bitcoin’s price steadily rising through June and into early July, before a marked uptick in mid-July continued into the start of August. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages supported such an upwards trajectory – a sign of bullish momentum. The peak came in early October, after which Bitcoin started to decline.
Moving average indicators, such as the 50-day and 200-day, illustrate the cryptocurrency’s average price over a 50-day and 200-day period, respectively, assisting investors in identifying short-term and long-term trends.
First to show weakness was the 50-day moving average, which turned downward, but in late October, the 50-day dropped below the 200-day, confirming a broader bearish trend. November saw further decline, though Bitcoin attempted a minor recovery toward month-end. These patterns together are typical of a full cycle, including mid-year growth followed by a prolonged correction.
Technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG expects a rebound soon. He told CNBC that Bitcoin’s pullback from its all-time high above $109,000 “remains within a bullish rising channel.”
Krinsky projects Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 in the coming weeks, maintaining a first-quarter 2026 target of $125,000. He cited continued institutional adoption, favorable macro conditions, and the growing influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs as key drivers.
Elevated exchange inflows suggest caution
CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision pointed out structurally elevated inflows on Binance. Normally, the seven-day cumulative exchange inflow hovered around $8 billion in 2025, but since August, it has not dropped below $11 billion. “This often aligns with phases of rotation rather than pure accumulation,” he noted.
Consequently, large players moving assets onto exchanges may increase sell-side liquidity, allowing market distribution if conditions turn risk-off.
Right now, Bitcoin’s price shows that investors are being very cautious. However, experts like Dragosch believe the market could bounce back as broader economic conditions improve. With past patterns and institutional activity in mind, any recent dips might simply reflect temporary setbacks rather than long-term declines.
Also Read: BlackRock Portfolio Expands Bitcoin ETF Position in Q3 Filing
